Comments on: The Hot Hand Fallacy http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/ Aligning Execution With Strategy Thu, 18 Sep 2014 23:46:14 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=4.0 By: Steve Asche http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1624 Thu, 09 Jan 2014 19:40:46 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1624 There are many occasions of the “hot hand” in sports which are more than just statistical streaks. You hear of players being “in the zone”. This is a documented phenomena http://breakingmuscle.com/sports-psychology/being-zone-flow-state-athletic-endeavors . Quarterbacks notably experience this and describe the phenomena as the game around them seems to slow down.

As for gambling, the 26 blacks phenomena, while improbable is still a real possibility and over the millions of spins of the roulette wheel does not affect the 47% probability that black will come up on any discrete spin of the wheel. What it does illustrate, however, is that generally the occurrence of red or black do not generally happen in evenly distributed patterns, but in streaks. Therefore the way to capitalize on the activity is in how you wager. While roulette wouldn’t be my game of choice, the technique does have merit in craps and blackjack.

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By: Michael CIeri (@mikec1121) http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1623 Thu, 09 Jan 2014 18:26:02 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1623 Very interesting blog post. I think it is an interesting comparison. Going back to the sports theory, I agree with some of the other comments in that sports is a very in the moment occurrence. I am by no means a great golfer, but there are times where I play and I am just on. When this happens I attack pin positions that I normally wouldn’t go near and it is because I have the confidence to do so. Then I can play a week later and I play extremely safe because i am not playing well and do not have the confidence to play with risk. I think when it comes to the hot hand its all about confidence. I have seen basketball players go on insane shooting sprees because they made several baskets in a row and their confidence was at an all time high. I think if a sports player believes they are on fire and doesn’t let negative thoughts enter their mind, for that one game they can be dominant and as many of have said, it has to be used against the competition.

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By: liv4music http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1304 Fri, 28 Dec 2012 21:02:46 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1304 While arguably trivial, as far as statistics is concerned, there are additional variables in sports, which can weigh in on the data, while gambling is pure chance. And when you referred to the concept of averages over longer periods of time, I believe you were referencing The Law of Large Numbers, which basically says that even if you get 8 “heads” out of 10 coin flips, as you increase the sample size, you will get closer and closer to the real probability of 50%, according to the law. Getting back to sports, disproportionately good performance would be advantageous to exploit, because games really only exist in the short-term. Furthermore, there are days for athletes that are just better. As a runner, some days I can shave five minutes of normal running time. Yes, if I averaged my times over a year, they would be about the same, but for the athlete, who aim is steadier, and truer on a particular day, it is in the interest of the player, the coach, and the team to exploit those moments of irregularity.

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By: albertgenau http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1303 Mon, 24 Dec 2012 11:17:08 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1303 Reblogged this on albertgenau.

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By: Jamie Oswald http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1302 Wed, 19 Dec 2012 15:09:06 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1302 If you’re really interested in the hot hand, you should check out the TrueHoop blog on ESPN (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/search?query=hot+hand&x=0&y=0) . Those guys have been after it for years.

To me it’s just one more reason for us to take a HANA box and a junket to the Sloan Sports Conference (http://www.sloansportsconference.com/) in March.

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By: Timo Elliott http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1301 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 14:36:27 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1301 A side note as pointed out by Nassim Taleb in his book “The Black Swan”: in real life, the odds are rarely known and pure.

Given human nature, if you do ever find yourself in a casino where the roulette wheel has comes up black twenty-six times in a row, you are probably better off assuming it has been rigged — and should therefore bet on black (or leave)…

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By: Karlheinz http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1300 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 08:00:47 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1300 That’s the research I had remembered. Now what’s the truth? :-)

http://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2012/08/the-hormone-surges-that-keep-winners-winning/260914/

“Scientists have suggested that there are several elements at play: First, testosterone levels rise when animals face off, producing anabolic effects on muscle mass and hemoglobin, quickening reactions, improving visual acuity, and increasing the animal’s persistence and fearlessness.”

Should be relevant for Basketball, I guess.

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By: Karlheinz http://jonathanbecher.com/2012/12/16/the-hot-hand-fallacy/#comment-1299 Mon, 17 Dec 2012 07:57:13 +0000 http://alignment.wordpress.com/?p=2298#comment-1299 Interesting, and unexpected. I think I have read about research that supporded the “hot hand” – something about a positive feedback loop between a winning streak in sports and hormone levels that in turn make you better at continuing your winning streak…

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