The raven paradox forces us to question the value of information. In his 1965 essay “Studies in the Logic of Confirmation,” the acclaimed philosopher of science Carl Hempel showcased a fundamental paradox in the scientific method using the simplistic observations of ravens. He started with the statement “all ravens are black.” Expressed in logic form,…
One of the best pieces of advice I ever received was to prioritize the big rocks. The concept of big rocks is attributed to Stephen Covey, the author of the wildly-popular book ‘The 7 Habits of Highly Effective People.’ Covey points out it’s common for people to focus on easy-to accomplish little things rather than…
The vestigial pattern bias explains why we get trapped by prevailing wisdom. In biology, vestigial structures are ones that have no apparent current function and appear to be left over from a past ancestor. Common examples are the human appendix, the pelvic bone of a snake, and the wings of flightless birds. In business, vestigial…
You should always get the bigger pizza. No, this isn’t some bigger-is-better American standard where size matters more than quality or consistency. It’s not because everyone loves pizza so you might as well get more of it (it’s the glutamate we find so irresistible). And I’m definitely not using the number of slices rule that…
The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly when making decisions. If we think of something quickly (i.e., it’s more available to our memory), we assume it’s a more frequent and more probable event. If we have a harder time thinking of something (less…
I’ve never been one to watch a lot of television but, like everyone else, started binge watching during the early days of the pandemic. Soon, I was faced with a dilemma: how long should I give a popular TV series before abandoning it for something else? I decided to follow the Rule of 25 for…
Whenever an expert makes a claim they cannot support with data, I’m reminded of the firewood fallacy. Firewood fallacy is a term I coined earlier in my career after being frustrated by how many organizations suffer from group think. Decisions are often made based on institutional knowledge or hearsay, rather than independent research or data….
In the middle of a wide-ranging conversation about remote work and creative collaboration, a friend blurted out “The pencil proves remote collaboration works!” It was an esoteric claim but one that makes a strong case. Let’s call it the pencil collaboration. Way back in 1958, an economist named Leonard Read wrote an essay called ‘I,…
It’s important to understand the difference between speed and velocity in business. In physics, velocity and speed are different things. Speed refers to how fast an object is moving; the rate at which an object covers distance. Velocity refers to the rate and direction at which an object changes its position. As an example, consider…
I have a bias for action. When a problem crops up, I quickly gather information and compare potential solutions. I use decisions-making tools to avoid paralysis by analysis. To no surprise to anyone who has worked with me before, I want to do something. My bias for action can be a strength when others are…