While it’s natural to try to learn from success, it can provide a skewed outlook. We need to understand survivorship bias to make better decisions. Survivorship bias happens when we base our understanding only on the experiences of those who succeed or are highlighted in some way, and do not take into account others who…
A wicked problem is so complex that you don’t really understand the problem until there’s a solution. The concept of a wicked problem was formalized in 1973 in the discipline of social planning and public policy. The use of the word ‘wicked’ doesn’t imply evil but rather the resistance of the problem to being solved….
Ever heard about the Seven-Eleven Rule? Neither had I. The seven-eleven rule is based on the belief that people make eleven decisions about a person in the first seven seconds after meeting them. Apparently, the eleven conclusions you make are the following: Education Level Economic Level Perceived Credibility, Believability, Competence and Honesty Trustworthiness Level of…
One rainy afternoon I was watching a re-run of a detective show when I began to think about the phrase “beyond a reasonable doubt.” How much doubt, I wondered, is reasonable? If you have an analytics background, you might fall prey to the temptation of trying to quantify the doubt. Using the language of statistics,…
Which matters more when making decisions: analysis or process? Given my analytics background, for most of my career I’ve tried to convince people they should make decisions based on data, rather than their gut. The more informed you are by data, the more confident you can be in your decision making. If the facts contradict…
When we face complexity, we have a choice between a simple solution and a complex solution. Donald Sull Over the last few months, I made a dent in my book reading list and now have a sizable backlog of potential blogs. One book I particularly enjoyed was ‘Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex…
I always ask aspiring business people: How do you beat Bobby Fischer, the renowned chess champion of the 1970’s? The Answer: Play him at anything but chess. This excerpt is from the second chapter of Seymour Schulich’s book, Get Smarter: Life and Business Lessons. Schulich is a self-made billionaire and one of Canada’s greatest philanthropists, having…
Q: What do the Southwest Airlines boarding process and the video game Halo have in common?A: They both rely on swarm intelligence to improve their experience. Swarm intelligence describes the behavior of a population of simple agents whose aggregate behavior exhibits intelligence unknown to the individual agents. Groups exhibiting swarm intelligence have no central leader…
There is both an art and science to timing decisions. In the book Blink, Malcolm Gladwell argued we should trust our snap judgments to make decision. He used examples from science, advertising, medicine and music to show that spontaneous decisions were as good as, and often better than, carefully considered ones. While Blink became a…
When is the best time to buy an airplane ticket? As a frequent traveler, experience has taught me that the best time to buy a US domestic ticket is mid-week. Flights always seem to be more expensive when purchased on the weekend. I tend to book flights on Tuesdays. A Wall Street Journal article seemingly supports my intuition….