Each year for more than 20 years, TIME has published an article on “the most impactful new products and ideas” which are evaluated based on originality, efficacy, ambition, and impact. A decade ago, I wrote about Time Magazine’s Best of 2014 and noted I was most intrigued by wireless electricity technology. Since then, wireless electricity…
Archive | predictions
The Availability Heuristic Impacts Decision Making
The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias which describes our tendency to use information that comes to mind quickly when making decisions. If we think of something quickly (i.e., it’s more available to our memory), we assume it’s a more frequent and more probable event. If we have a harder time thinking of something (less…
New Year’s Resolutions Shenanigans, 2020 edition
It’s the time of year when New Year’s resolutions are ubiquitous. In a quick search, I found more than 100 articles published in the last week alone. Apparently, we’ve all resolved to write about resolutions. While they are common, New Year’s resolutions are notoriously difficult to keep – only 1/3 of people who make resolutions keep them…
Adaptability may be more important than IQ or EQ
For most of my career, I have favored candidates with high Emotional Quotient (EQ) over those with high Intelligence Quotient (IQ). Just like my mantra that culture eats strategy, I believe situational awareness often trumps pure smarts. Of course, I’ve never known any candidate’s IQ test score let alone their EQ score. (Yes, you can…
A Sound of Thunder and The Butterfly Effect
In the late 80’s, I watched many episodes of The Ray Bradbury Theater – a television series adaptation of the works of the science fiction writer, Ray Bradbury. For a few years, my friends and I gathered on Friday nights to watch it live; there was no binge-watching in those days and no one ever…
Unleash Your Inner William Gibson
Welcome to the future. It is a common complaint that we were promised jetpacks and flying cars but all we got was… something less cool. But the complaints are mostly unwarranted. Things that seemed like science fiction not long ago are now commonplace (or soon will be): under-the-skin GPS, 3D printing, hoverboards, lab-grown leather, self-heating…
You don’t win by predicting the future
You don’t win by predicting the future; you win by getting the odds right. I heard this provocative quote at a recent conference. As far as I could tell, the speaker was trying to make the point that you don’t need an accurate forecast of the future. Instead you understand the probability of different events…
New Year’s Resolutions Shenanigans, 2016 edition
It’s the time of year when New Year’s resolutions are all around us. In a quick news search, I found more than 100 articles published in the last week alone. Apparently we’ve all resolved to write about resolutions. New Year’s resolutions are especially tough because they are usually set only once per year and have…
Yule Moon: A Rare Full Moon On December 25
This week is the 38th anniversary of a rare event which will cause millions to peer out at the night sky. No, I’m not talking about Star Wars: The Force Awakens. The initial segment, A New Hope, did first appear in theaters in 1977 – 38 years ago – but of course there have been…
March Madness Metrics: 2015 Edition
It’s March Madness, Baby! Most readers will recognize this catch-phrase celebrating the annual NCAA men’s college basketball tournament whose opening rounds just concluded. The tournament includes 64 teams organized into four separate regions which play over three long weekends until deciding a champion. Some – including me – believe it’s the most exciting tournament in…